The BOPP drop has started on October 14 and has lasted for more than two months since December 22.The price of thick light film in East China has fallen to 10,700-11,000 yuan / ton, down a total of 3,550 yuan / ton, down 25.17%, and the local real transaction has approached 10,500 yuan / ton.

This round of BOPP reduction: one is the active profit of the film factory after the high price is difficult to close, the second is the continuous decline of the market demand, the third is the weak support of the raw material end, the fourth is the improvement of the starting load rate of enterprises and the continuous production of new devices.BOPP has been falling for more than two months for a week, and the nearly two weeks of decline has slowed significantly, the market attention to BOPP is can rebound?Zhuochuang information believes that the current BOPP still lacks the power to rebound, the short-term weak shock market will still maintain.

Factor 1: lack of cost support For BOPP cost, the polypropylene market is currently in the stage of loose supply and tepid demand, and the cost end is difficult to be good.First of all, at present, polypropylene production enterprises have few maintenance devices, while in the late new production capacity, Zhejiang Petrochemical and other devices are expected to be put into production at the end of December, and the pressure on the supply end is greater.However, on the demand side, the low season, the domestic downstream is currently stable, the late affected by the cold weather and some regional environmental supervision, demand is expected to decline; and only a week near the Spring Festival, the market stock behavior has not been started.At the same time, although exports have improved due to the recent decline in domestic prices, they are expected to aggravate the shipping tension affected by the epidemic, and the good export trend is expected to be limited.Fundamentals overall, the polypropylene market is still leading by the decline.At the same time, the cost impact of crude oil fluctuations and indirect futures fluctuations should also be considered.

Impact actors two: sufficient supply, demand level BOPP supply and demand relationship, the current supply is loose, and the demand maintains the general stage.In terms of supply, a 10.4 m production line was added from September to November, and the market capacity supply increased sharply. Except for the obvious load reduction operation in late September and October, most BOPP devices returned to normal load level in November, and some units were stopped due to local public health events and minor maintenance of some devices, with little overall maintenance loss. Through the finished inventory of BOPP enterprises, the inventory of BOPP accelerated.Overall, the current BOPP market supply is relatively loose.In terms of demand, the order performance of BOPP enterprises in December was flat, with no large area of stocking behavior, users are mainly periodic, periodic just need to fill the warehouse, and the demand side has little supporting role to the BOPP market.

In terms of the days when BOPP enterprises did not deliver orders, they remained in about 10 days in December. According to Zhuochuang Information, some enterprises go out with the purchase, and the delivery is faster.In general, the current BOPP market oversupply status quo is maintained, which will bring a certain drag to the BOPP market in a short period of time.

According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, the current profit of BOPP enterprises is 1100-1200 yuan / ton, and the price difference between each category film and thick light film has not been recovered before the first half of 2020.

It is expected that if the cost and supply and demand relationship are still not effectively improved, the possibility of BOPP enterprises to continue to narrow the profit margin and gradually repair the inter-film price difference between various categories cannot be ruled out.Zhuochuang Information: Although the BOPP decline has slowed down, it is still difficult to rebound. Overall, although the current BOPP decline has slowed down, it still lacks the conditions to rebound.In terms of cost, supply and demand or the price difference between raw materials, BOPP’s next weak operation expectation is still relatively strong.There is still a month and a week before the Spring Festival holiday. According to the usual practice in previous years, the first half month of the festival has gradually weakened, and the BOPP trading time before the Spring Festival is only about half a month. If the stock enthusiasm of users remains light before the holiday, Zhuochuang Information expects that it is even more difficult for BOPP to rebound.