BOPP rose in the first quarter and then fell, and was in a downward channel at the beginning of the second quarter. In the first quarter, only one new line was put into production, and in the second quarter, we focused on new production. In the first quarter, BOPP’s profit space gradually narrowed, and the low profit in the second quarter may be a high probability event.
Price: BOPP rose first and then fell in the first quarter, with cost and demand acting alternately
Looking back at the BOPP market in the first quarter, there were two rounds of upswings: after the Spring Festival and in early March. The main reasons for the two increases were cost driven: after the Spring Festival, the crude oil continued to rise during the holiday, and the initial PP futures significantly increased after the holiday to drive spot prices, which boosted costs and raised THE price of BOPP. The price of East China Thick Light film rose by 400 yuan/ton to 11300 yuan/ton on a single day, and then the lack of demand coordination gradually fell back. The rise in early March was also driven by the increase in crude oil. The turbulence in the international situation caused the oil price to rise above $100 / barrel, and the one-day fluctuation range was large. The raw material PP followed the increase, and BOPP rose again driven by the cost.
Figure 1
The driving force of BOPP price rise is cost, but the conflict of high-price source market is obvious and the market sales are not fast. After two rounds of price rise, both prices quickly enter the downward channel.
BOPP East China thick light film price in the first quarter of 10,750-11900 yuan/ton, the lowest point appeared in early January, the highest point appeared in early March. At the end of the first quarter, the price of East China thick light film is 11200 yuan/ton.
Profit: THE profit margin of BOPP is arranged at a low level, and the overall profit margin is narrowed
The profit margin of BOPP in the first quarter was 685-1265 yuan/ton, the low point appeared in the end of March, and the high point appeared in the middle of February. As a whole, the profit space of BOPP was on the low side in the first quarter. Except for the enlargement around the Spring Festival and early March, it was below 1000 yuan/ton in most of the other periods.
Figure 2
Profit changes are clearly related to cost and demand. Cost push up, but demand is not good, BOPP profit margin will shrink, such as early March.
For the second quarter, BOPP’s traditional off-season is coming, coupled with the current situation of poor market demand performance, BOPP’s demand performance may still be pessimistic. However, it does not exclude the expectation reflected in late March demand lag, but the time and strength are yet to be verified by practice.
Zhuochuang information: the second quarter BOPP weak tone or the main tone, intermittent rebound exists
At present, BOPP is in the stage of relatively sufficient supply and continuous shrinking demand, and enterprise inventory continues to accumulate. Although some order inventory is included, the inventory pressure of BOPP enterprise has already appeared.
At the end of March and the beginning of April, some BOPP enterprises have reduced load production, on the one hand, raw material supply is tight, on the other hand, demand support is insufficient. Zhuochuang Information is expected that the current situation of blocked supply circulation in the market will continue for 10-15 days, and the BOPP market demand recovery is not expected to be strong, bringing limited support to the market.
On the supply side, some production lines will be put into production in the second quarter, but it is likely to be delayed, so we need to pay close attention to it.
On the cost side, although there is a centralized overhaul of raw material PP in the second quarter, the market demand also shows signs of contraction, the supply side of the contraction supply is difficult to alleviate the current supply is too much demand, the strong rebound of PP in the second quarter is not expected, the range of shock finishing market.
In general, the second quarter BOPP price is weak adjustment of the main tone, the probability of price fall more or rise less. During the period, the possibility of a rebound in prices following the temporary release of raw materials or demand is not excluded, but the length and strength are limited. Zhuochuang information is expected to BOPP price in the second quarter or 10,000-11500 yuan/ton, firm offer focus on negotiation.
Post time: Apr-15-2022