The PVC powder market in 2021 is a year of witnessing history. The price continues to rise. The second half of the year continues to create historical highs. The low price appeared on January 14, the price of East China SG-5 was RMB 7,100/ton, and the high point appeared in October. On the 12th, the price of East China SG-5 was 14493 yuan/ton. As of November 16, the average annual price of East China SG-5 was 9233 yuan/ton, an increase of 2592 yuan/ton or 39.03% over the full year of 2020. The main reasons affecting the trend in 2021 include monetary easing, a large increase in exports, a reduction in supply-side production, and a substantial increase in costs.。
Exports surge and monetary easing support continuous price increases from January to May
Before the Spring Festival, the Fed’s monetary policy easing situation and expected support, bulk commodities were ready to move, the market rushed, and prices rose. After the Spring Festival, affected by the cold wave in the United States, half of the PVC installations in the United States were forced to park for a longer period of time due to force majeure, which was given to China. Exports bring opportunities, and China’s PVC exports have increased significantly. In addition, the production of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia was significantly reduced in mid-March, and the price of calcium carbide rose rapidly, which supported the cost of PVC.
According to customs data, the export volume from January to September 2021 was 1,335,600 tons, an increase of 283.13% year-on-year. Among them, the export volume from March to May was more than 200,000 tons. The large increase in export volume supports the lower inventory details in the domestic market than in previous years. It can be seen from Figure 3 that in the first quarter, the accumulation of inventory in major warehouses in East and South China was limited. In the second and third quarters, the inventory fell rapidly, and the overall inventory was significantly lower than in previous years, starting in the fourth quarter. , The inventory is basically the same as the previous two years.
High volatility from June to August
The adjustment of PVC market prices from June to August was mainly due to the exhaustion of the good and the impact of the small off-season of demand. On the one hand, the US installations that were parked in the first quarter resumed one after another, and the domestic export arbitrage window began to close. On the other hand, the production of calcium carbide increased, and the price of calcium carbide fell rapidly. , The cost support is weakened, and the third aspect is that the demand for PVC in the rainy season is slightly weaker. September-October surge and fall. After September, the starting load of the raw material calcium carbide dropped again, and the cost of PVC increased significantly. In addition, the starting load of PVC also saw a significant reduction in production. In addition, PVC export arbitrage reopened, and the export volume was once increased, reinjecting momentum into the market. On October 12, the price of East China SG-5 rose to a historical high of 14,493 yuan/ton. However, with the collapse of coal prices, the cost-side support of PVC collapsed. In addition, expectations of continued production cuts in the future were also falsified. The market price plummeted rapidly, falling by more than 36% in less than a month. In the short term, the PVC market is at a low level and fluctuates. After November, the PVC market sentiment has returned to normal, and the negative factors have been digested. Around the middle of the PVC industry chain, there will be certain meager profits in the upstream and downstream of the PVC industry chain. Worried about future demand, there are certain differences between long and short, and the market has entered a range of fluctuations.
Post time: Nov-27-2021